Identification of areas vulnerable to climate change -induced salinity Report

This report provides an assessment of the risks climate change poses to the agricultural sector in six African countries: The Gambia, Togo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Botswana, and Mozambique. These countries are already experiencing the impacts of climate change through increasing temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns, leading to more frequent and severe droughts and floods. This analysis, conducted as part of the RESADE project, focuses on understanding how these climatic changes are likely to affect the agricultural sector, which is vital for the livelihoods and food security of many people in these countries. The report first examines historical climate trends in each country using data from national weather stations and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) TS4.03 dataset. This analysis reveals a consistent pattern of rising temperatures over the past 50 years. The magnitude of this warming varies between countries, with some experiencing increases of 1°C, while others have seen temperatures rise by as much as 1.5°C. In addition to rising temperatures, the report also notes significant year-to-year variability in rainfall in all six countries, highlighting their vulnerability to both droughts and floods. 

To understand how these climate trends might evolve in the future, the report uses projected climate data from the NASA NEX-GDDP Dataset. This dataset provides projections for two different emissions scenarios: RCP4.5, representing a moderate emissions pathway, and RCP8.5, a high emissions scenario where greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise at their current rate. Under both scenarios, the report finds that all six countries are projected to experience continued warming by the end of the century. The magnitude of this warming is much greater under RCP8.5, ranging from +4.5°C to as high as +6°C, compared to increases of around +2°C under RCP4.5. 

The projected changes in rainfall are less consistent across countries and regions, with some areas projected to receive more rain and others facing the possibility of drier conditions. However, the report emphasizes that even in regions where rainfall is projected to increase, the changing timing and intensity of rainfall events could still pose challenges for agriculture. 

To evaluate the potential impacts of these climate changes on agriculture, the report creates vulnerability maps based on the concept of exposure, which measures the extent to which a system is likely to be affected by climate change. These maps are created using a set of climate indices related to heat and drought stress, with the relative importance of each index determined through workshops with experts in each country. The vulnerability maps show a wide range of exposure levels across the different countries and regions, highlighting the need for targeted interventions to address the specific challenges faced by different areas. 

Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would go beyond exposure to also consider the sensitivity of agricultural systems to climate change and their adaptive capacity to adjust to these changes. The report aims to include these components by using socioeconomic data provided by partners in each country. However, the availability of this data has been limited, with only Togo and Botswana providing sufficient information to partially assess sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Despite these data limitations, the report underscores the importance of considering factors such as population density, reliance on agriculture for livelihoods, access to markets, and infrastructure when developing adaptation strategies. 

In light of these findings, the report recommends that the next phase of the RESADE project should focus on the regions identified as most vulnerable to climate change. It also suggests the establishment of a second Best Practice Hub (BPH) within these regions to serve as a center for knowledge sharing, technology transfer, and capacity building. By focusing efforts on the most vulnerable areas and strengthening local adaptive capacity, the RESADE project can play a critical role in helping these countries cope with the challenges of a changing climate and ensure the continued viability of their agricultural sectors.